Summary

Varða – a forum for resilience and the Brooks Tech Policy Institute (BTPI) at Cornell University held an event in connection with the Arctic Circle Assembly 2025 on the usefulness of strategic tabletop exercises (strategic simulations) for Iceland. The meeting was held in confidence under the Chatham House Rule. Key figures from politics, public administration, business and academia discussed how such exercises could be used in Iceland to strengthen resilience and policymaking in the field of national security.

Key discussions

Representatives of BTPI presented the international context of tabletop exercises and how they have proven an effective tool for assessing risk, shaping responses and testing plans. In particular, they described their experience of tabletop exercises with the United States Congress on major disasters in the Arctic, and of exercises on the isolation of Svalbard held for the British Royal Navy.

Representatives of Varða placed strategic tabletop exercises in the context of the evolving debate and policymaking on defence and security matters in Iceland, and pointed to their potential as a tool for strengthening the country's resilience and security. It was noted in particular that tabletop exercises can

• connect and train communication between the government apparatus, companies and other actors through realistic scenarios;
• foster better dialogue between policymaking and operations in the fields of security, infrastructure and preparedness;
• serve as a tool for identifying weaknesses and strengths in Icelandic response systems;
• train leaders in coordination and strategic communication in connection with conflicts and accidents.

Following the introduction, participants were divided into groups that developed proposals for scenarios worth examining in an Icelandic context. The groups presented their scenarios at the end of the event and prioritised them by dot voting. The scenarios that received the most votes included broken supply chains (regardless of cause), a bomb attack on hot-water pipelines in the depths of winter, and a cyber attack causing reservoirs to be drained at the worst possible time (and consequently power outages lasting several months).

Participants said the exercise had been interesting and stressed the importance of the groups being interdisciplinary. Many of the ideas came as a surprise to them. It was also noted that most of the scenarios assumed a domestic shock, which points to an opportunity to examine exercise scenarios in which interaction with other nations is a key element.

Next steps

Representatives of Varða will analyse the ideas that attracted the greatest interest among participants for further development in cooperation with BTPI. Relevant experts will be brought in for further consultation and brainstorming to review and assess their potential for implementation, which is the aim going forward.

The summary can be downloaded below in PDF format in Icelandic and English.