Varða publishes analyses and reports on matters of national security, independently and with partner institutes and experts. Summaries from Varða's events are also collected here. Web editions are translated from the Icelandic originals.
Drone threats and gaps in public response systems
Drone-related incidents have increased significantly in Europe in recent years, causing disruption at airports, ports and other infrastructure. In 2025, unidentified drones led among other things to airport closures in Denmark and Norway, and similar incidents near Keflavík Airport drew attention in Iceland. The trend has not reversed. On the contrary, recent…
A third shock in five years should prompt a concerted effort to build security stockpiles in Iceland
Summary Varða's analysis indicates that over 50% of Iceland's goods imports consist of product categories that can be affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The effects may be confined to price increases, but a prolonged disruption of shipping in the Persian Gulf increases the risk that deliveries of supplies are curtailed, delayed or fail altogether. Accumulated shortages and the destruction of production capacity mean that even…
New analysis by the think tank Varða on the disaster awareness and preparedness of the Icelandic public
The first comprehensive survey of the disaster awareness and preparedness of the Icelandic public reveals that trust is high and attitudes positive, but actual preparedness is weak, especially when disruptions last longer than two to three days. The survey was conducted by Gallup on behalf of Varða in autumn 2025, and the results compared with a European Eurobarometer survey on the same subject. …
Iceland's lifeline under foreign flags
In 1987, 39 merchant vessels were registered in Iceland. Today, not a single cargo ship sails under the Icelandic flag. More than 90% of all our trade in goods arrives by sea. This applies not only to consumer goods but to the foundations of Icelandic food production and industry: fertiliser for fields, spare parts for agricultural machinery, feed for salmon farming, and steel and timber for construction…
Russian sabotage, infrastructure and Iceland
Europe's security environment has changed significantly since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Sabotage against civilian infrastructure has become a fixture of Russian foreign policy, deployed deliberately in the grey zone between war and peace. The aim is to disrupt the functioning of societies, create uncertainty and raise costs without triggering a conventional military response. A new…
The state of Iceland's defence cooperation
A summary of a roundtable discussion held on 26 November 2025. Download the Icelandic PDF version here | Download a PDF version in English here Varða, in cooperation with Dagur B. Eggertsson, Member of Parliament and chair of the Icelandic delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, convened a roundtable on 28 January on defence agreements and defence cooperation. In the background were recent addresses in Davos and the tension that…
Iceland's security and defence policy
Summary of a roundtable discussion held on 26 November 2025. Varða, in cooperation with MP Þórdís Kolbrún R. Gylfadóttir, convened a roundtable discussion on Iceland's security and defence policy, held in connection with the visit of Charlie Edwards of the British think tank IISS, who had conducted an independent analysis of the policy at Varða's request. The meeting was attended by leaders from politics, business, …
Strategic tabletop exercises for Iceland
Varða – a forum for resilience and the Brooks Tech Policy Institute (BTPI) at Cornell University held an event in connection with the Arctic Circle Assembly 2025 on the usefulness of strategic tabletop exercises (strategic simulations) for Iceland. The meeting was held in confidence under the Chatham House Rule. Key figures from politics, public administration, business and academia discussed how such exercises could be used in Iceland …
A monthly English-language briefing on North Atlantic security, from Reykjavík — officials quoted in full, primary sources linked.
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