Publications

In 2025 the Special Unit of the National Commissioner of the Icelandic Police (sérsveit ríkislögreglustjóra) responded to 424 armed call-outs, more than one a day on average. Call-outs had risen more than sevenfold since 2014, while the unit’s staffing had changed little since 2008. In spring 2025 the unit had 46 serving officers, ten short of its authorised strength.

Drone-related incidents have increased significantly in Europe in recent years, causing disruption at airports, ports and other infrastructure. In 2025, unidentified drones led among other things to airport closures in Denmark and Norway, and similar incidents near Keflavík Airport drew attention in Iceland. The trend has not reversed. On the contrary, recent…

Summary Varða's analysis indicates that over 50% of Iceland's goods imports consist of product categories that can be affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The effects may be confined to price increases, but a prolonged disruption of shipping in the Persian Gulf increases the risk that deliveries of supplies are curtailed, delayed or fail altogether. Accumulated shortages and the destruction of production capacity mean that even…

The first comprehensive survey of the disaster awareness and preparedness of the Icelandic public reveals that trust is high and attitudes positive, but actual preparedness is weak, especially when disruptions last longer than two to three days. The survey was conducted by Gallup on behalf of Varða in autumn 2025, and the results compared with a European Eurobarometer survey on the same subject. …

Today no merchant vessels are registered in Iceland, whereas in 1987 there were 39. All ships operated by Icelandic shipping companies sail under foreign flags — Faroese, Norwegian or Dutch, for example — even though over 90% of Iceland's trade in goods travels by sea. Fuel, food, medicines and building materials arrive almost exclusively on ships over which Iceland has no jurisdiction.

Europe's security environment has changed significantly since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Sabotage against civilian infrastructure has become a fixture of Russian foreign policy, deployed deliberately in the grey zone between war and peace. The aim is to disrupt the functioning of societies, create uncertainty and raise costs without triggering a conventional military response. A new…

A summary of a roundtable discussion held on 28 January 2026. Varða, in cooperation with Dagur B. Eggertsson, Member of Parliament and chair of the Icelandic delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, convened a roundtable on 28 January 2026 on defence agreements and defence cooperation. In the background were recent addresses in Davos and the tension that…

Summary of a roundtable discussion held on 26 November 2025. Varða, in cooperation with MP Þórdís Kolbrún Reykfjörð Gylfadóttir, convened a roundtable discussion on Iceland's security and defence policy, held in connection with the visit of Charlie Edwards of the British think tank IISS, who had conducted an independent analysis of the policy at Varða's request. The meeting was attended by leaders from politics, business, …

Varða – a forum for resilience and the Brooks Tech Policy Institute (BTPI) at Cornell University held an event in connection with the Arctic Circle Assembly 2025 on the usefulness of strategic tabletop exercises (strategic simulations) for Iceland. The meeting was held in confidence under the Chatham House Rule. Key figures from politics, public administration, business and academia discussed how such exercises could be used in Iceland …

An independent review of Iceland's new security and defence policy, written by Charlie Edwards of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) at Varða's request. The review assesses the policy as timely and realistic, and sets out recommendations for the next steps.